ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To identify prognostic models which estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and to assess their validation properties. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit, and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n = 1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n = 1,104), by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots). RESULTS: We validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in nine of them (AUCs ≥ 80%) and higher in those predicting mortality (AUCs 65%-87%) than those predicting intensive care unit admission or a composite outcome (AUCs 53%-78%). Calibration was poor in all models providing outcome's probabilities and good in four models providing a point-based score. These four models used mortality as outcome and included age, oxygen saturation, and C-reactive protein among their predictors. CONCLUSION: The validity of models predicting critical COVID-19 by using only routinely collected predictors is variable. Four models showed good discrimination and calibration when externally validated and are recommended for their use.
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BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to determine the association between previous stroke and mortality after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) according to sex, age groups, and stroke subtypes. METHODS: Prospective population-based cohort study including all COVID-19 positive cases between February 1 and July 31, 2020. Comorbidities and mortality were extracted using linked health administration databases. Previous stroke included transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and combined stroke for cases with more than one category. Other comorbidities were obesity, diabetes, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, dementia, individual socioeconomic index, and deprivation index. Cases were followed up until December 31, 2020. Primary outcome was mortality of any cause after COVID-19 positivity. Cox proportional regression analysis adjusted for comorbidities was used. Stratified analyses were performed for sex and age (<60, 60-79, and ≥80 years). RESULTS: There were 91 629 COVID-19 cases. Previous strokes were 5752 (6.27%), of which 3887 (67.57%) were ischemic, 1237 (21.50%) transient ischemic attack, 255 (4.43%) combined, 203 (3.53%) hemorrhagic, and 170 (2.96%) subarachnoid hemorrhage. There were 9512 deaths (10.38%). Mortality was associated with previous stroke (hazard ratio [HR]=1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.18]; P<0.001), in both sexes separately (men=1.13 [1.05-1.22]; P=0.001; women=1.09 [1.01-1.18]; P=0.023), in people <60 years (HR=2.97 [1.97-4.48]; P<0.001) and 60 to 79 years (HR=1.32 [1.19-1.48]; P<0.001) but not in people ≥80 years (HR=1.02 [0.96-1.09]; P=0.437). Ischemic (HR=1.11 [1.05-1.18]; P=0.001), hemorrhagic (HR=1.53 [1.20-1.96]; P=0.001) and combined (HR=1.31 [1.05-1.63]; P=0.016) strokes were associated but not transient ischemic attack. Subarachnoid hemorrhage was associated only in people <60 years (HR=5.73 [1.82-18.06]; P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Previous stroke was associated with a higher mortality in people younger than 80 years. The association occurred for both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke but not for transient ischemic attack. These data might help healthcare authorities to establish prioritization strategies for COVID-19 vaccination.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cerebrovascular Disorders , Stroke , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 Vaccines , Cerebrovascular Disorders/complications , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Stroke/etiologyABSTRACT
Treatment with calcitriol, the hormonal form of vitamin D, has shown beneficial effects in experimental models of acute lung injury. In this study, we aimed to analyze the associations between calcitriol supplementation and the risk of SARS-CoV2 infection or COVID-19 mortality. Individuals ≥18 years old living in Catalonia and supplemented with calcitriol from April 2019 to February 2020 were compared with propensity score matched controls. Outcome variables were SARS-CoV2 infection, severe COVID-19 and COVID-19 mortality. Associations between calcitriol supplementation and outcome variables were analyzed using multivariable Cox proportional regression. A total of 8076 patients were identified as being on calcitriol treatment. Advanced chronic kidney disease and hypoparathyroidism were the most frequent reasons for calcitriol supplementation in our population. Calcitriol use was associated with reduced risk of SARS-CoV2 infection (HR 0.78 [CI 95% 0.64-0.94], p = 0.010), reduced risk of severe COVID-19 and reduced COVID-19 mortality (HR 0.57 (CI 95% 0.41-0.80), p = 0.001) in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. In addition, an inverse association between mean daily calcitriol dose and COVID-19 severity or mortality was observed in treated patients, independently of renal function. Our findings point out that patients with advanced chronic kidney disease could benefit from calcitriol supplementation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 is currently causing high mortality and morbidity worldwide. Information on cardiac injury is scarce. We aimed to evaluate cardiovascular damage in patients with COVID-19 and determine the correlation of high-sensitivity cardiac-specific troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with the severity of COVID-19. METHODS: We included 872 consecutive patients with confirmed COVID-19 from February to April 2020. We tested 651 patients for high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) and 506 for NT-proBNP on admission. Cardiac injury was defined as hs-TnT > 14 ng/L, the upper 99th percentile. Levels of NT-proBNP > 300 pg/mL were considered related to some extent of cardiac injury. The primary composite endpoint was 30-day mortality or mechanical ventilation (MV). RESULTS: Cardiac injury by hs-TnT was observed in 34.6% of our COVID-19 patients. Mortality or MV were higher in cardiac injury than noncardiac injury patients (39.1% vs 9.1%). Hs-TnT and NT-proBNP levels were independent predictors of death or MV (HR, 2.18; 95%CI, 1.23-3.83 and 1.87 (95%CI, 1.05-3.36), respectively) and of mortality alone (HR, 2.91; 95%CI, 1.211-7.04 and 5.47; 95%CI, 2.10-14.26, respectively). NT-ProBNP significantly improved the troponin model discrimination of mortality or MV (C-index 0.83 to 0.84), and of mortality alone (C-index 0.85 to 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Myocardial injury measured at admission was a common finding in patients with COVID-19. It reliably predicted the occurrence of mortality and need of MV, the most severe complications of the disease. NT-proBNP improved the prognostic accuracy of hs-TnT.